Solar energy growth in the India: Slow uphill March towards 270 GW.
- RE Society of India RESI
- Feb 25, 2023
- 7 min read
Updated: Mar 19, 2023
Over the past few years, the solar power sector in India has developed into a rapidly expanding industry sector. It helps the government achieve its goal of sustainable growth while simultaneously becoming an important component of the answer to the problem of how to satisfy the energy requirements of the country and an important factor in ensuring energy security. Despite this, it does not appear like we are on schedule to meet our goal of 270 GW by the year 2030. Adding only 53 GW of capacity instead of the anticipated 100 GW by 2022 is also a failure.
The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (NSM) was initiated by the Government of India on January 11, 2010. The National Solar Mission (NSM) is one of the eight National Missions that were launched on June 30, 2008 as part of the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC). The mission's objective is to establish India as a global leader in solar energy by establishing the policy conditions necessary for its rapid spread across the country as soon as possible.
The Mission targets included:
Deployment of 20,000 MW of grid connected solar power by 2022;
2,000 MW of off-grid solar applications including 20 million solar lights by 2022;
20 million sq. m. solar thermal collector area;
To create favorable conditions for developing solar manufacturing capability in the country; and
Support R&D and capacity building activities to achieve grid parity by 2022.
The potential of solar energy in the country is estimated to be around 750 GWp based on the availability of land and solar radiation.
After that, the new Government on June 17, 2015, approved an increase in the cumulative targets for Grid Connected Solar Power Projects from 20,000 MW (20 GW) by 2021-22 to a total of 100,000 MW (100 GW) by 2021-22. This was done as part of the National Solar Mission.
The new goal of one million megawatts (MW) is expected to be accomplished in a period of seven years and will, in general, comprise of forty thousand megawatts (40 GW) of grid-connected rooftop projects and sixty thousand megawatts (60 GW) of large and medium size land-based solar power projects.
Implementation Status of NSM:
In 2017, M/s. CRISIL was appointed by the Ministry to evaluate the National Solar Mission (NSM). The key elements of the evaluation's conclusions and suggestions are as follows:
Renewable energy capacity must be increased; The NSM has increased its aim by a factor of five; Phase-I was successful, with the exception of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP); and Phase II of NSM will concentrate on economies of scale.
Rooftop market to play crucial role in risk reduction from solar programme; Responding to DISCOMs' Key Concerns on Rooftops; Grid infrastructure and protocols need to be prioritized.
There are concerns surrounding payment security; a shift from a capital subsidy model to a market-driven one for off-grid, and a imperative to focus on research and development and production.
Unproductive operations and maintenance, with a case study of underutilised off-grid equipment.
In accordance with the announcement made by the Hon'ble Prime Minister of India at CoP26, the Government of India is working towards the goal of achieving 500 GW of installed capacity from non-fossil fuels by the year 2030. To reach the goal of 500 GW of energy capacity that is not reliant on fossil fuels by the year 2030, a target of 270 GW of solar power has been established.
Bundling Scheme, Viability Gap Funding (VGF) Scheme, Central Public Sector Unit Scheme, Canal Bank/Canal Top Scheme, Demo GBI Scheme, Rooftop PV and Small Solar Power Generation Programme (RPSSGP), Solar Park Scheme, etc. were introduced throughout time to help reach NSM's 100 GW goals.
In addition to these programmes, solar power project tenders are also issued by various Central and State Government entities. These bids use a competitive bidding process based on tariffs to choose project developers. The majority of these initiatives are initiated in developer mode, in which only private developers invest in the project.
Many initiatives have also been launched by the government to increase the use of renewable energy, such as solar power, throughout the country. Such examples are as follows: The launch of the "National Hydrogen Mission" will pave the way for the development of about 125 GW of renewable energy projects (including solar) across the country; Notification of Green Open Access Regulations issued to advance Renewable Energy; 500 GW transmission line plan; Incentives tied to production are being offered as part of the "National Plan on high efficiency Solar PV Modules" in an effort to boost manufacture on home soil; The quality of solar cells and modules is monitored by a "Approved List of Models and Manufacturers" (ALMM); Allowing up to one hundred percent FDI through the automated mechanism; Projects that will generate solar or wind power and sell that power across state lines and have yet to be commissioned will have their ISTS fees waived if they are commissioned by June 30, 2025; Disclosure of Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) path through 2029-2030; Green Energy Corridor Scheme investments in new transmission lines and sub-station capacity for the evacuation of renewable power; Standard Bidding Guidelines for the procurement of Electricity from Grid-Connected Solar PV and Wind Projects through a competitive bidding process based on tariffs.
As of the January 31, 2023, the country has a solar capacity of approximately 64 GW only that had been commissioned. In addition, there is an additional capacity of approximately 52 GW that is now being implemented (Letter of Award issued), and 34 GW is in the stage of tendering (Letter of Award not yet issued). As a result, a total solar capacity of 150 GW has either been commissioned or is in the pipeline. To reach at 270 GW by 2030, there is strong need of planning, monitoring and tendering of additional 120 GW of capacity in the next 5 years to installed it before 2030.
The Year-on-Year (YoY) trends of previous years shows that in India, even after multiple tenders in pipelines, the installation rate is very slow which ultimately put a breaker on the achievement of 500 GW by 2030.
NSM targets also includes the Off-grid and Decentralized Solar PV Applications Programme as one of its components. The programme was initially introduced in 2010 and has since progressed through a total of three phases. During Phase I, which was carried out between 2010-2013, a capacity of 252 MW was sanctioned against the objective of 240 GW; however, only 117 MW of the capacity that was sanctioned was actually built. In a similar manner, during Phase-II, which was carried out between 2013-2017, the objective was set at 600 MW, but only 345.5 MW was actually installed. The total sanctioned capacity was 713 MW. In addition, during the implementation of Phase-III, which took place between 2018-2021, a capacity of 20.09 MW was sanctioned as opposed to the aim of 118 MW, however only 15.91 MW of the capacity that was sanctioned was installed.
Up until Phase II of the Solar PV applications Programme, the SPV pumps component was also a part of the Off-grid and Decentralized Solar PV applications Programme. After then, it was incorporated into the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthan Mahabhiyan (PM KUSUM) initiative, which began on March 8, 2019. The overall progress of target areas designated by PM KUSUM is also moving at a very modest pace.
The AJAY (Atal Jyoti Yojana) Phase I programme has been initiated for the purpose of installing Solar Street Lights, and the programme is currently continuing as AJAY Phase II. A programme called Seven Million Solar Study Scheme has been initiated for the purpose of providing children who attend school with solar study lamps. Unfortunately, only 1,35,393 nos of SSL were produced in the Phase-I of the AJAY project, which had a target of 3,38,000 nos of SSL, and only 1,35,393 nos SSL were produced in the Phase-II of the project, which had a target of 3,04,500 nos of SSL.
The total cumulative installations of off-grid SPV applications up to this point have only reached about 2.88 GW (in off grid including Solar Home Light , Solar lamp, Solar Street Light , Solar Pumps, Solar Power Packs, KUSUM), which is a far away from the aim of over 30 GW including PM KUSUM.
Even after the launch of the National Rooftop Solar Portal by the Honorable Prime Minister and the earlier SPIN portal by the Honorable Minister, the rooftop solar installation sector is not on track to meet the target of 40 GW by 2022. Instead, the sector has only achieved 8.2 GW in both phases of the project. This is despite the fact that the target was to reach 40 GW by 2022.
The Renewable Energy Implementation Agencies, which include SECI, NTPC, and NHPC in addition to a number of state agencies, are the responsible entities of executing the bidding for utility-scale solar projects. Since 2010–2011, a decreasing tendency of tariffs has been seen in the solar sector, and this trend is reflected in the graph below:
The Renewable Energy Implementation Agencies, which include SECI, NTPC, and NHPC in addition to a number of state agencies, are the responsible entities of executing the bidding for utility-scale solar projects. Since 2010–2011, a decreasing tendency of tariffs has been seen in the solar sector, and this trend is reflected in the graph below:
The scheme that is being implemented as part of the NSM is still in the developing phases despite its apparent progress. The major Schemes, such as the Solar Park Scheme and the Rooftop Plan, each have a goal of developing a capacity of 40 GW, even though they've only achieved 10 GW and 7.6 GW respectively. The PM KUSUM was brought up earlier in the discussion on the off-grid sector, and it is still in the lower phase of implementation with respect to projects.
With the Covid-19 epidemic and other issues in mind, the Plan time has been frequently extended in several schemes, delaying the implementation of programs and initiatives under the Scheme despite the large amount of funding available under the Scheme.
Rajasthan with the highest installation in Solar stands on the first position since last 2-3 years due to supportive policy, environment, insolation, interest and overall governance of the projects being setup under the State. Gujarat, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are also having a lot of projects and continuously adding the capacity in the State through various central as well as state scheme projects.
Gujrat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh are the top runners in terms of tenders issued within the state. In these states, all tenders are issued by state agencies, and projects are also set up or will be set up in the state in order to attract investments and provide employment opportunities to residents of the state.
Even after their land has been taken on lease or on purchase to set up various RE projects, the problem of non-employment is already a big story in several states. This is the case even though the land was taken.
Floating solar projects on water bodies are currently being developed by a variety of project developers, who have switched their focus away from the traditional demand for land to work on such projects. Of a potential area of 30 GW, India has only put into operation 260 MW worth of floating power projects thus far. When compared to ground-mounted solar projects, the cost of the floaters is a significant factor in determining whether or not the project is viable.
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