India’s Growth Roadmap: Building Resilience in a Fragmented World

India stands at an inflection point. The global economy is slowing—OECD projects global growth at just 2.9% in 2025-26, while trade restrictions and geopolitical rifts deepen. Yet India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with real GDP expanding 6.5% in FY 2024-25 and the National Statistical Office estimating GDP at ₹330.7 lakh crore. Private consumption now contributes 61.4% of GDP, its highest share in two decades, while gross fixed capital formation has grown 7.1%, signalling strong domestic investment.

Strong Fundamentals, Evolving Challenges

From 2008 to 2025 India’s GDP at constant prices has more than doubled, and per-capita GNI has risen nearly fivefold. Structural reforms—GST, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, Jan-Dhan–Aadhaar–Mobile architecture—have improved fiscal discipline and financial inclusion. Inflation is under control, easing from 6.7% in 2022-23 to 4.6% in 2024-25, with the RBI projecting 3.7% in 2025-26. But the global context is tougher than the export-led decades that propelled Japan, Korea or China. India’s leap to high-income status must navigate deglobalisation, automation, climate constraints and volatile supply chains.

Fiscal Discipline and Investment Push

The Centre targets an 8% real growth rate for a decade, requiring investment to rise from ~31% to 35% of GDP. Capital expenditure has already grown 4.3× since 2017-18, while debt-to-GDP is set to decline from 57.1% in FY 2025 to ≈50% by FY 2031 through fiscal consolidation and improved expenditure quality. States are incentivised via Special Assistance for Capital Investment, rising from ₹11,830 crore in 2020-21 to a budgeted ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2025-26.

Engines of Growth

Infrastructure & Digital Backbone: National highways have expanded 65% since 2014; operational airports have more than doubled; India’s logistics ranking improved to 38 (2023). UPI and the broader digital stack have revolutionised financial inclusion, though cyber-security and literacy gaps need attention.

Trade & Manufacturing: Exports of goods and services touched an all-time high USD 437 billion in 2024-25, with the U.S., UAE, Netherlands, U.K. and China as top destinations. Production-Linked Incentive schemes across 14 sectors and a simplified clearance regime aim to raise India’s 2.8% global share in manufacturing.

Banking & Credit: Gross NPAs of scheduled banks are at a 13-year low of 2.5%, while liquidity ratios remain well above regulatory norms, supporting credit growth.

Agriculture & Price Stability: Foodgrain output rose 6.5% in 2024-25, buffer stocks are at 749 LMT, and headline inflation has eased to ~3%, aided by strong monsoons and diversified crude sourcing from 39 countries.

Energy Transition with Security

Renewables now provide ~50% of installed capacity, moving toward a 50% target by 2030. Yet storage costs and mineral supply risks persist. The government’s response is multi-pronged:

Battery Energy Storage: Viability Gap Funding for 236 GWh BESS by 2031-32 and pumped-storage hydropower.

Critical Minerals: International tie-ups through the Minerals Security Partnership and acquisitions in Argentina and Australia.

Green Hydrogen: 5 Mtpa target by 2030, with 862,000 t capacity already awarded.

Nuclear: Ambitious plan to reach 100 GW by 2047, including Small Modular Reactors.

Inclusive & Equitable Development

The growth strategy is anchored in “Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Prayas”:

·Social spending on rural development (₹2.67 lakh crore BE 2025-26), education, health and affordable housing.

·Skill and employment programmes, revised tax slabs to boost disposable incomes, and continued food-grain support for over 81 crore beneficiaries.

·Policies to raise female labour-force participation and strengthen MSMEs.

Conclusion: India’s growth blueprint strikes a rare equilibrium: it rejects both inward-looking protectionism and unchecked globalism in favor of a carefully calibrated path. By combining resilient domestic demand, disciplined fiscal management, bold green-energy investments, and deep social inclusion, the country is insulating itself against rising tariffs, fractured supply chains, and climate risks. This strategy is not just about sustaining the world’s fastest growth rate—it is about building an economy that is innovative, shock-resistant, and broadly shared. If executed with consistency, it positions India to transform from an emerging market into a stable, high-income, and climate-conscious economic powerhouse by mid-century.

Sources: Standing Committee on Finance, Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Office; RBI; OECD; World Bank

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Citation

“India’s Growth Roadmap: Building Resilience in a Fragmented World.” Renewable Energy Chronicles: The Power Saga, Renewable Energy Society of India (RESI), 2025.