India's Green Hydrogen Surge – A Global Economic Anchor in Turbulent Waters

Harnessing hydrogen's promise: India's blueprint for energy independence and export dominance in a decarbonizing world. – Ajay Mishra, DG, RESI

As we enter 2026, India's National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM), launched three years ago with a ₹19,744 crore commitment, stands as a beacon of strategic foresight amid a global hydrogen sector grappling with recalibration. While the international market faces headwinds—investments pivoting from Europe's stringent regulations, as noted in recent analyses—the NGHM's early milestones position India not merely as a domestic decarboniser but as a pivotal exporter in a market projected to swell from $181 billion in 2025 to nearly $280 billion by 2034. This isn't green altruism; it's shrewd economics, harnessing India's renewable surplus to capture a slice of the $100 billion-plus global demand for clean fuels by 2040.

Domestically, the mission's traction is impressive: electrolyser incentives for 3,000 MW annual capacity and green hydrogen production awards for 862,000 tonnes per annum are already driving costs down by an estimated 20-30%, fostering over ₹8 lakh crore in projected investments and 600,000 jobs by 2030. Pilots in steel, shipping, and transport—deploying hydrogen in refineries like IOCL's Panipat and pioneering bunkering at V.O. Chidambaranar Port—promise efficiency gains, slashing emissions by 50 million tonnes annually while insulating sectors from volatile fossil imports. Four Hydrogen Valleys and 23 R&D projects, bolstered by a 2023 standard and 2025 certification scheme, are seeding innovation clusters that could mirror the IT boom, with 6,940 skilled trainees already amplifying workforce productivity.

Yet the real multiplier lies in global linkages. With the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism looming, India's green ammonia bids (724,000 tonnes priced) and export-oriented policies align seamlessly with hydrogen importers like Japan and Germany, where demand for derivatives in fertilisers and shipping is surging. As global production ramps toward 10-15 million tonnes by decade's end, India's 5 million-tonne target—leveraging 125 GW of added renewables—could secure 10-15% market share in Asia-Pacific trade, yielding billions in forex while averting supply chain risks exposed by recent geopolitical disruptions. State policies in four regions further decentralise this edge, tapping local advantages for cost-competitive exports.

Challenges persist: water constraints and grid upgrades demand $300 billion annual climate investments through 2030. But with stocks in Indian green hydrogen firms rallying amid global shifts, the NGHM exemplifies how emerging economies can turn climate imperatives into GDP accelerators—potentially adding 0.5% to growth. In a year where hydrogen's path redefines itself, India's bet looks increasingly bankable.

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Renewable Energy Society of India (RESI), "Renewable Energy Chronicles – The Power Saga (ISBN: 978‑81‑993949‑6‑4)